Financial Modelling & Investment Case - Specialty Eye‑Care Centre (Greenfield)

Context

• Client: A leading chain of ophthalmology centres in India.

• Geography: India

• Objective: Answer four investment-critical questions:
  • Revenue ramp & unit economics: What is the realistic Y1→Y5 revenue path by OPD vs surgeries?
  • Debt capacity & serviceability: Can short-term equipment + deposit loans be serviced under base utilization
  • Break-even & payback: When do monthly cash flows turn positive and when is simple payback achieved?
  • Valuation & investor case: What is the DCF outcome (WACC, IRR, Firm NPV, Equity NPV) and what are the sanity checks (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA)?

What we delivered (scope)

• Bottom‑up revenue engine split by OPD and surgeries with explicit throughput and pricing ladders.

• Cost build‑up for direct surgical materials, staffing plan and increments, facility (rent + GST + utilities), marketing cadence.

• Debt schedules for equipment and rental‑deposit loans with principal/interest waterfalls and EMI impact.

• Cash‑flow view (monthly & annual) highlighting burn profile, debt service capacity, and transition to positive operating cash flows.

• Valuation pack (DCF with terminal value; IRR/NPV framing) + simple sanity checks (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA) without disclosing figures.

• Stakeholder‑ready summary deck capturing assumptions, sensitivities, and decision checkpoints.

Approach & methodology

1. Throughput & pricing design: Model OPD visits and surgeries with explicit YoY growth and price ladders; separate volume/mix and price effects.

2. Direct & indirect cost linkages: Tie surgical material costs to procedure revenue; parameterise wage inflation and staffing mix; codify facility and utility assumptions; set a marketing cadence calibrated to funnel targets.

3. Capital & debt structuring: Model short‑tenor loans for equipment and deposits; map amortisation, interest, and EMI timing to cash‑flow seasonality.

4. Cashflow‑first lens: Build monthly runway and debt‑service tests with covenant buffers; surface early‑warning indicators.

5. Sensitivity suite: One‑click scenarios for utilisation, pricing, staffing, and marketing intensity; downside/managed/upsides with transparent switches.

6. Valuation & decision framing: FCFF‑based DCF with stated WACC & terminal growth; translate outputs into go/no‑go criteria and lender discussion points (no public disclosure of values).

Outcomes (non‑metric)

• Lender‑ready model accepted for diligence discussions.

• Clear path‑to‑positivity articulated with controllable levers identified by owner function.

• Debt serviceability story structured to address covenant comfort and cash‑flow timing.

• Board alignment achieved via concise, assumption‑driven summary pack and scenario narratives.

Deliverables

• Excel financial model (monthly & annual views; scenario toggles).

• Stakeholder deck (assumptions, cost structure, debt waterfalls, cash‑flow trajectory, valuation framing).

• Executive brief (approach, risks, mitigation, and decision checkpoints).

Illustrations